지금으로부터 12년전 IMF국가부도사태가 오기 전해인 1996년.

제가 아는 사람이 외무부 공뭔들과 친목회를 하고 있었는데

그 친목모임의 사람들이 살고있던 집들을 팔기 시작했었습니다.

제가 아는 그분도 잠실에 살고있던 아파트를 팔고

옆단지로 전세를 가더군요.



이야기의 요지는 '나라가 큰 불황을 맞을지 모른다.

현대도 위험하고 삼성도 위험하다!' 이런거였죠.



아시다시피 국가부도사태라는게 우리가 겪어보지 않았던 초유의 사태였고

현대를 넘어 삼성이 위험하단 얘기에 그 신빙성에 의문을 갖게 됐었습니다.

저는 그해 처음으로 집을 샀지요.....



그리고 그 이듬해 다니던 직장도 자의반 타의반 그만두고

(이미 불황의 직격탄을 정면으로 맞고있던 업계라....)

몇달 빈둥대다가 뭔가 해 볼 요량으로

집을 담보로 대출을 신청하기에 이르렀는데

대출금을 받던날 은행창구에서 엄청나게 오른 환율 전광판을

두려운 마음으로 망연자실 쳐다보던 저의 참담한 그 심정이

아직까지도 생각만 하면 몸서리가 쳐질 정도입니다.



그 이후 10년간의 제 인생, 어흑~ 눈물 납니다.

옛말에 곤륜산에 불이 나면 옥이고 돌이고 모두 타버린다는 그말이

아주그냥 뼛속깊이 각인돼 있습니다.



그런데 제가 요즘 또 그렇게 불안한데

경제전반이나 국제금융 쪽에 밝은 회원님을

얘기 좀 해봐요, 어떻게 될런가.....



다음은 모건스탠리 의견이라던데요....





Korea Won May Fall on Bank Risk, Morgan Stanley Says



BLOOMBERG.COM



By Kim Kyoungwha and Patricia Lui





May 7 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's won may add to its 8.8 percent loss this year as the country is poised for a ``monetary shock'' from overstretched local banks, according to Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm by market value.



Credit-market losses will make it difficult for Korean banks, which have extended 1.33 times more loans than their deposits, to get funding, Stewart Newnham, a Hong Kong-based currency analyst, said in an interview today. A cut in interest rates by the central bank will encourage banks to lend and an increase may raise the burden for consumers to repay loans, Newnham said.



The won is the worst performer among the world's 16 most- active currencies in 2008 as overseas investors dumped the nation's stocks on signs the economy is cooling. A fourth month of current account deficits in March due to record oil prices and slowing export growth also deterred investors.



``The shock is that Korea's monetary situation may have worsened to such a degree that whichever policy action the Bank of Korea now takes, it will have a negative impact on the won,'' Newnham said. ``We now recognize that the won faces a new source of instability, a monetary shock.''



Any relaxation in the bank's monetary stance will encourage banks to continue lending and inflate the stock of money, while rate increases could destabilize the economy by eventually collapsing the overly stretched banking system, Newnham said.



Newnham declined to provide a forecast for the currency, which fell 1.1 percent to 1,026.10 against the dollar as of the 3 p.m. close, the biggest decline since March 17, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd.



Predictions Vary



United Overseas Bank Ltd., Singapore's second-largest lender, revised its year-end forecast for the won to 980 per dollar instead of 920, in a research note yesterday. In the first four months of 2008, investors abroad sold 14.8 trillion won ($14 billion) more Korean shares than they bought, compared with total net sales of 27.2 trillion won in 2007, the report showed.



The won's loss is also underpinned by a deteriorating trade surplus and exporters' hedging, UOB strategists Ho Woei Chen and Jimmy Koh wrote in the report.



Analysts and economists surveyed by Bloomberg News over the past month are giving different views on the won's outlook. The currency will trade at 980 to the dollar by June 30 and 972 by the end of the third quarter, according to the median estimate in the survey. Estimates ranged from 900 to 1,100 by Sept. 30.



Goldman Sachs' economist Kwon Goohoon wrote in a research note today that the won ``could strengthen somewhat against the dollar from current levels'' should interest rates stay on hold.



Liquidity Risk



The Bank of Korea is losing control over the money supply as Korean banks continue to bolster lending, fueling inflation and increasing the risk of a ``liquidity crisis,'' Morgan Stanley's Newnham said.



``Our call for calmer waters ahead may have proven to be premature,'' Newnham said. ``These ongoing liquidity risks continue to undermine the won.''



M2 money growth accelerated 13.9 percent in March, compared with February's 13.4 percent, Bank of Korea data showed today. South Koreans' ability to repay debt has weakened, the central bank said on May 1. The ratio of interest payments to disposable income climbed to 9.5 percent last year from 9.3 percent in 2006.



Central bank Governor Lee Seong Tae and his six colleagues meet tomorrow to review rates. Thirteen of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the seven-day repurchase rate will stay unchanged at 5 percent, while seven expect a cut. Policy makers last adjusted the benchmark with a quarter-percentage point increase in August.



``Whatever policy direction the Bank of Korea now takes, ease or tighten, we think it will be potentially negative for the won,'' Newnham said.



To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net. or Patricia Lui in Singapore at 2658 or plui4@bloomberg.net



Last Updated: May 7, 2008 04:16 EDT







제2의 IMF 국가부도 사태 급속히 진행중



Korea Won to Fall as Banks Face `Shock,'' Morgan Stanley Says



한국 원은 은행이 <쇼크>에 직면한 결과, 하락할 것이라고 모건 스탠리가 전했다.





May 7 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea''s won

may add to its 8.6 percent loss this year as the country

is poised for a ``monetary shock'''' from overstretched local banks,

according to Morgan Stanley,

the second-biggest U.S. securities firm by market value.





시가로 전미 2위인 증권 회사인 모건 스탠리는, 무리를 거듭하고 있는 한국내의 은행때문에 올해 <금융 쇼크>에 직면하게 될 것이라고 말했다.

벌써 원은 올해 들어와 8.6% 하락하고 있다.





Credit-market losses will make it difficult for Korean banks,

which have extended 1.33 times more loans than their deposits,

to get funding, Stewart Newnham, a Hong Kong-based currency analyst,

said in an interview today.

A cut or an increase in interest rates by the Bank of Korea

would exacerbate the problem, he said.





한국 은행은 예금의 1.33배를 대출하고 있지만, 신용 시장에서의 손실은 운용자금을 보유하는 것을 어렵게 만들 것이라고 홍콩 주재의 통화 어널리스트인 스튜어트 뉴남은 오늘자 인터뷰에 말했다. 한국 은행에 의한 금리 하락 혹은 금리 인상은 문제를 악화시킬 것이라고 그는 말했다(중략)





"The shock is that Korea''s monetary situation

may have worsened to such a degree that

whichever policy action the Bank of Korea now takes,

it will have a negative impact on the won," Newnham said.

"We now recognize that the won faces a new source of instability,

a monetary shock"





"그 쇼크는, 한국의 금융 상황이 너무나 악화되었기 때문에 한국 은행이 어떠한 정책을 취해도, 그것은 원에대해 네거티브한 충격 밖에는 주지 않는다는 것이다" 라고 뉴먼은 말한다.

"우리가 인식하는 부분은 원은 새로운 불안정 상태에 직면하고 있다는 것,

곧 금융 쇼크 상태라는 것이다" 라고 그는 말한다(중략)





"Whatever policy direction the Bank of Korea now takes,

ease or tighten, we think it will be potentially negative for the won"





"고삐를 늦추든 채우든, 어떠한 정책 방침을 한국은행이 채용하려고 해도,

그것은 원에 대해 잠재적인 네가티브적인 영향을 줄수 밖에 없다고 생각한다." 라고 그는 말했다.