Korea Won May Fall on Bank Risk, Morgan Stanley Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&refer=asia&sid=ami2C8tXcTiE


By Kim Kyoungwha and Patricia Lui


May 7 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's won may add to its 8.8 percent loss this year as the country is poised for a ``monetary shock'' from overstretched local banks, according to Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest U.S. securities firm by market value.

Credit-market losses will make it difficult for Korean banks, which have extended 1.33 times more loans than their deposits, to get funding, Stewart Newnham, a Hong Kong-based currency analyst, said in an interview today. A cut in interest rates by the central bank will encourage banks to lend and an increase may raise the burden for consumers to repay loans, Newnham said.

The won is the worst performer among the world's 16 most- active currencies in 2008 as overseas investors dumped the nation's stocks on signs the economy is cooling. A fourth month of current account deficits in March due to record oil prices and slowing export growth also deterred investors.

``The shock is that Korea's monetary situation may have worsened to such a degree that whichever policy action the Bank of Korea now takes, it will have a negative impact on the won,'' Newnham said. ``We now recognize that the won faces a new source of instability, a monetary shock.''

Any relaxation in the bank's monetary stance will encourage banks to continue lending and inflate the stock of money, while rate increases could destabilize the economy by eventually collapsing the overly stretched banking system, Newnham said.

Newnham declined to provide a forecast for the currency, which fell 1.1 percent to 1,026.10 against the dollar as of the 3 p.m. close, the biggest decline since March 17, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd.

Predictions Vary

United Overseas Bank Ltd., Singapore's second-largest lender, revised its year-end forecast for the won to 980 per dollar instead of 920, in a research note yesterday. In the first four months of 2008, investors abroad sold 14.8 trillion won ($14 billion) more Korean shares than they bought, compared with total net sales of 27.2 trillion won in 2007, the report showed.

The won's loss is also underpinned by a deteriorating trade surplus and exporters' hedging, UOB strategists Ho Woei Chen and Jimmy Koh wrote in the report.

Analysts and economists surveyed by Bloomberg News over the past month are giving different views on the won's outlook. The currency will trade at 980 to the dollar by June 30 and 972 by the end of the third quarter, according to the median estimate in the survey. Estimates ranged from 900 to 1,100 by Sept. 30.

Goldman Sachs' economist Kwon Goohoon wrote in a research note today that the won ``could strengthen somewhat against the dollar from current levels'' should interest rates stay on hold.

Liquidity Risk

The Bank of Korea is losing control over the money supply as Korean banks continue to bolster lending, fueling inflation and increasing the risk of a ``liquidity crisis,'' Morgan Stanley's Newnham said.

``Our call for calmer waters ahead may have proven to be premature,'' Newnham said. ``These ongoing liquidity risks continue to undermine the won.''

M2 money growth accelerated 13.9 percent in March, compared with February's 13.4 percent, Bank of Korea data showed today. South Koreans' ability to repay debt has weakened, the central bank said on May 1. The ratio of interest payments to disposable income climbed to 9.5 percent last year from 9.3 percent in 2006.

Central bank Governor Lee Seong Tae and his six colleagues meet tomorrow to review rates. Thirteen of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the seven-day repurchase rate will stay unchanged at 5 percent, while seven expect a cut. Policy makers last adjusted the benchmark with a quarter-percentage point increase in August.

``Whatever policy direction the Bank of Korea now takes, ease or tighten, we think it will be potentially negative for the won,'' Newnham said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net. or Patricia Lui in Singapore at 2658 or plui4@bloomberg.net







제2의 IMF 국가부도 사태 급속히 진행중
2008/05/19 19:48

Korea Won to Fall as Banks Face `Shock,'' Morgan Stanley Says

한국 원은 은행이 <쇼크>에 직면한 결과, 하락할 것이라고 모건 스탠리가 전했다.


May 7 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea''s won
may add to its 8.6 percent loss this year as the country
is poised for a ``monetary shock'''' from overstretched local banks,
according to Morgan Stanley,
the second-biggest U.S. securities firm by market value.


시가로 전미 2위인 증권 회사인 모건 스탠리는, 무리를 거듭하고 있는 한국내의 은행때문에

올해 <금융 쇼크>에 직면하게 될 것이라고 말했다.

벌써 원은 올해 들어와 8.6% 하락하고 있다.


Credit-market losses will make it difficult for Korean banks,
which have extended 1.33 times more loans than their deposits,
to get funding, Stewart Newnham, a 홍콩-based currency analyst,
said in an interview today.
A cut or an increase in interest rates by the Bank of Korea
would exacerbate the problem, he said.

한국 은행은 예금의 1.33배를 대출하고 있지만,

신용 시장에서의 손실은 운용자금을 보유하는 것을 어렵게 만들 것이라고

홍콩 주재의 통화 어널리스트인 스튜어트 뉴남은 오늘자 인터뷰에 말했다.

한국 은행에 의한 금리 하락 혹은 금리 인상은 문제를 악화시킬 것이라고 그는 말했다(중략)


"The shock is that Korea''s monetary situation
may have worsened to such a degree that
whichever policy action the Bank of Korea now takes,
it will have a negative impact on the won," Newnham said.
"We now recognize that the won faces a new source of instability,
a monetary shock"

"그 쇼크는, 한국의 금융 상황이 너무나 악화되었기 때문에 한국 은행이 어떠한 정책을 취해도,

그것은 원에대해 네거티브한 충격 밖에는 주지 않는다는 것이다" 라고 뉴먼은 말한다.

"우리가 인식하는 부분은 원은 새로운 불안정 상태에 직면하고 있다는 것,

곧 금융 쇼크 상태라는 것이다" 라고 그는 말한다(중략)


"Whatever policy direction the Bank of Korea now takes,
ease or tighten, we think it will be potentially negative for the won"

"고삐를 늦추든 채우든, 어떠한 정책 방침을 한국은행이 채용하려고 해도,

그것은 원에 대해 잠재적인 네가티브적인 영향을 줄수 밖에 없다고 생각한다." 라고 그는 말했다.



p.s : 기사대로라면 올 2008년에 원화가치가 무려 8.8%나 하락했고 ,
한국경제가 MB집권이후로 급격히 하락하면서
전세계 16개 주요통화중에 최악의 하락을 기록중이고 ,
2008년 1~4월 동안 14조 8000억원이나 투자가들이 원화를 투매하면서
대한민국이 급속히 금융 쇼크 상태에 직면하는 중이고 ...
한국은행이 통화공급 통제권을 잃어가면서
인플레이션은 폭등하고 있고 ,
유동성 위기는 점점 증가하는 상황이고 ...
한국은행에 따르면 대외채무 지불능력도 급속히 악화되고 있으며 ...
한국은행이 앞으로 무슨 정책을 채택하든간에 상관없이
원화에 대해 부정적인 정책이 될 거라고 확신하는 외국 전문가 ...
이게 금융위기가 아니면 도대체 뭔가 ???
MB집권 3개월만에 다시 IMF 국가부도 사태에 직면하고 있다는 경고가 터져나오고 있다 ...

http://blog.daum.net/wefunk/16937384?srchid=BR1http%3A%2F%2Fblog.daum.net%2Fwefunk%2F16937384