영국의 유명 신문인 파이낸셜 타임지 기사다. 이게 선진국이 맹박이를 바라보는 시각이다.
부끄러운 줄 알고 반성 좀 합시다.
Published: February 17 2008 18:51 | Last updated: February 17 2008 18:51
Regime change in Korea? This conjures up the Bush administrations imperial fantasies of what it on-ce dubbed the axis of evil before George W. Bush turned turtle and started talking to Pyongyang in a bid to score a foreign policy success somewhere.
With Kim Jong-il still in situ, it is the other Korea where regime change is imminent. Lee Myung-bak, a conservative former chief executive of Hyundai and mayor of Seoul, elected by a landslide in December, will be inaugurated as South Koreas president on February 25. His appointment ends a decade of centre-left rule in Seoul under Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun.
김정일이 아직 건재하니, 이것은 대한민국에서 일어난 정권교체이다. 현대의 사장이었고, 서울시장이었던 이명박은 지난 12월 선출되어 2월 25일 대한민국의 대통령으로 취임한다. 지난 10년간의, 좌익 이었던 김대중, 노무현 정권은 이명박의 취임으로 끝이난다.
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Yet there are danger signs. Mr Lee's "747" slogan pledges 7 per cent annual growth in gross domestic product, to boost per capita income to $40,000 and create the world's seventh largest economy. But how can this fly? Seven per cent growth is a tall order for a big industrial economy at the best of times - let alone with high oil prices (Korea imports it all) and a US recession looming. As for joining the top seven, which economy does Mr Lee believe South Korea can overtake?
하지만 위험한 신호들이 있다. 이명박의 747 공약은 GDP를 7% 올리고 1인당 소득을 4만달러로 만들고, 세계 7번째 경제대국이 되겠다는 것이다. 하지만 어떻게 이게 달성 가능하겠는가? 7% 성장은 산업화된 경제대국에는 최고의 시기라 해도 어마어마한 목표다. 하지만 한국이 모두 수입하는 유가는 고공행진에 미국의 침체가 다가오고 있다. 또 세계 7번째 경제대국에 진입하는 것을 따져보면, 이명박은 한국이 도대체 어느나라를 제칠 수 있다고 믿는 건가?
Being pro-business sounds good, but which business? The mighty conglomerates, the chaebol , see Mr Lee as their man. He promises to end curbs that stop them owning banks. Yet with Samsung being probed for alleged bribery and other malfeasance, is giving these behemoths freer rein the way to go? (중략)
'친기업적'이란 것은 좋게 들린다. 하지만 어떤 기업에 친하다는 말인가? 강력한 대기업인 '재벌'은 이명박을 자기 사람으로 보고 있다. 이명박은 그들이 은행을 소유하는 것을 막는 금산분리 규제를 끝내겠다고 약속한다. 하지만 삼성이 이미 뇌물과 다른 부정으로 연루된 상황에서, 이런 거대 괴물들(재벌)이 더 설치게 하자고?
Then there is his grand canal. Having beautified a long-hidden Seoul stream as a major amenity, Mr Lee plans a $16bn nationwide canal network. Almost all experts dismiss this as a white elephant. Yet Mr Lee is sticking to his guns, while promising consultation. If he goes ahead, this threatens to be a divisive distraction from Korea's real problems.
그리고 대운하가 있다. 서울의 감춰진 개천(청계천)을 미화한 뒤 이명박은 160억달러가 드는 전국적 규모의 대운하 계획을 세웠다. 거의 모든 전문가들이 이것을 하얀 코끼리(돈만 많이 드는 쓸데 없는 짓)라고 지적하지만 이명박은 논의할 것을 약속하면서도 이것에 계속 집착하고 있다. 그가 계속 밀고 나간다면, 대운하는 한국의 진정한 문제로부터 주의를 뺏길 수 있는 분열을 가져올 수 있다.
If, as expected, national assembly elections on April 9 give Mr Lee's Grand National party a thumping majority, few checks and balances will be left on what looks like a chief executive's vision of government, even a new Korea Inc.
현재 전망대로 4월 9일에 열리는 총선에서 이명박의 한나라당이 압승을 거둬 확실한 과반을 확보한다면 새로운 한국 주식회사의 CEO의 정국 구상에 대해 지적하거나 균형을 맞출 수 있는 수단이 거의 남지 않을 것이다.
Omnipotence also means no hiding place. Mr Lee will be vulnerable if growth does not better the 5 per cent under Mr Roh. A special counsel is probing his past financial dealings. Any dirt it uncovers could help turn a bulldozer who fails to delivㄴer on too many bold pledges into a lame duck.
(총선의 압승으로) 전능한 신이 된다는 것은 또한 숨을 데(변명할 거리)가 없다는 것을 뜻한다. 만약 올해 성장율이 노무현 정부의 5% 보다 못하다면 이명박은 공격당할 수밖에 없다. 특검이 그의 과거(BBK)에 대해 조사하고 있는데, 더러운 과거까지 드러난다면 너무나 많은 과대 공약을 달성하는데 실패한 불도저는 레임덕으로 전락할 것이다.
South Korea's real problems run deeper than soundbites. They include jobless graduates - too many study the wrong subjects - and, above all, how to create a growth model to meet China's challenge. That entails boosting services, which means more FDI. Mr Roh, to his credit, saw this. Does Mr Lee?
한국의 진짜 문제는 수사보다 훨씬 깊은 곳에 있다. 청년 실업자 문제와 무엇보다도 중국의 도전에 맞설 성장 모델을 어떻게 창조하느냐 등이다. 그것은 서비스 부문을 촉진하는 것이며, 이는 더 많은 외국인 직접 투자를 불러올 것이다. 노무현은 이것을 내다봤다. 이명박도 그런가?
For a new broom, he seems redolent of Korea's past. While drive beats drift any day, what Seoul needs is a brain surgeon, not a bulldozer.
신임 대통령으로서 이명박은 한국의 과거를 상기시킨다. 한국에 필요한 것은 불도저가 아니라 뇌수술 의사다.
파이낸셜 타임즈(FT) 지
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COMMENT: Seoul is in need of sound policy, not soundbites
By Aidan Foster-Carter, Financial Times
Published: Feb 18, 2008
Regime change in Korea? This conjures up the Bush administration's imperial fantasies of what it once dubbed the "axis of evil" - before George W. Bush turned turtle and started talking to Pyongyang in a bid to score a foreign policy success somewhere.
With Kim Jong-il still in situ, it is the other Korea where regime change is imminent. Lee Myung-bak, a conservative former chief executive of Hyundai and mayor of Seoul, elected by a landslide in December, will be inaugurated as South Korea's president on February 25. His appointment ends a decade of centre-left rule in Seoul under Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun.
Mr Lee is allowed only a single term, so he has five years until 2013 to reshape his country. His transition team has already issued a dizzying welter of new initiatives. Pro-business and dynamic - nicknamed "bulldozer" from his Hyundai days - Mr Lee is widely seen, not least in Washington, as a welcome change from his jejune and prickly predecessor Mr Roh.
Many of Mr Lee's ideas make sense. He will mend fences with the US and with Japan, with no more apologies demanded for pre-1945 iniquities. English, which all Koreans learn but few speak, will be pushed at all levels. Government is to be slimmed and red tape cut. Privatisation, which slowed under Mr Roh, is set to resume. Like Mr Roh, Mr Lee supports early ratification of last year's free-trade agreement with the US, though neither side's legislature may oblige.
Yet there are danger signs. Mr Lee's "747" slogan pledges 7 per cent annual growth in gross domestic product, to boost per capita income to $40,000 and create the world's seventh largest economy. But how can this fly? Seven per cent growth is a tall order for a big industrial economy at the best of times - let alone with high oil prices (Korea imports it all) and a US recession looming. As for joining the top seven, which economy does Mr Lee believe South Korea can overtake?
Being pro-business sounds good, but which business? The mighty conglomerates, the chaebol , see Mr Lee as their man. He promises to end curbs that stop them owning banks. Yet with Samsung being probed for alleged bribery and other malfeasance, is giving these behemoths freer rein the way to go? Better, surely, to boost Korea's cash-strapped small and medium-sized enterprises, which are vital for the job creation Mr Lee also promises: 600,000 a year, no less.
What of foreign business? Mr Lee claims to welcome foreign direct investment, yet is critical of profittaking. With the Lone Star fiasco still dragging on, this stance may not reassure foreign investors that they are as free and welcome to make money in Korea as Koreans are. Allowing the chaebol to buy banks suggests a state keen to build national champions.
Then there is his grand canal. Having beautified a long-hidden Seoul stream as a major amenity, Mr Lee plans a $16bn nationwide canal network. Almost all experts dismiss this as a white elephant. Yet Mr Lee is sticking to his guns, while promising consultation. If he goes ahead, this threatens to be a divisive distraction from Korea's real problems.
For a supposed free-marketeer, Mr Lee favours a very visible hand. While seeking to close four of 18 ministries, he plans to strengthen the powerful presidential Blue House at the expense of the prime minister. Many in Seoul would advocate the reverse.
If, as expected, national assembly elections on April 9 give Mr Lee's Grand National party a thumping majority, few checks and balances will be left on what looks like a chief executive's vision of government, even a new Korea Inc.
Omnipotence also means no hiding place. Mr Lee will be vulnerable if growth does not better the 5 per cent under Mr Roh. A special counsel is probing his past financial dealings. Any dirt it uncovers could help turn a bulldozer who fails to deliver on too many bold pledges into a lame duck.
South Korea's real problems run deeper than soundbites. They include jobless graduates - too many study the wrong subjects - and, above all, how to create a growth model to meet China's challenge. That entails boosting services, which means more FDI. Mr Roh, to his credit, saw this. Does Mr Lee?
For a new broom, he seems redolent of Korea's past. While drive beats drift any day, what Seoul needs is a brain surgeon, not a bulldozer.
The writer is honorary senior research fellow in sociology and modern Korea at Leeds University, England, and a freelance writer, broadcaster and consultant on Korea
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